You might have read the first article “How Sports Betting Scams work part 1” that has a focus on low-level scams, this time we are going to focus on some of the more sophisticated ways that so-called “Cappers” scam you. If you are reading this and you are someone that sells picks, excellent. Then you can face reality and the fact that there is a good chance that you are using one or more of these methods to scam people out of money to fund your losing sports betting habit. With that being said let´s get down to some of the picks this weekend and beat the bookie!
Odds that are not possible to bet
One way more sophisticated sports betting scam artists pad their record is to simply quote odds that you can not bet. In some cases, this is after a huge steam move and they just recommend the line before the big move. This is a great method to trick people since they are aligning their picks with the market efficiency and they do not have to do the work of grabbing the odds before they move at all the other sportsbooks that follow.
Example: “Beat the Bookies bet Bills -6 -110”
Example: “Bayern -1.5 1.91”
Example: “Mc Gregor ITD 2.9”
“Bills -6 -110” Sounds great right? The fact of the matter is that the line -6 -110 was available, just that it was 24 hours ago. The Capper that is providing a “service” decided to tell you that you should have bet it 24 hours ago, now the line is -7 or -7.5 -110. A lot of people will just take the current line of -7 but there is such a huge difference between -6 and -7 in NFL.
“Bayern -1.5 1.91” While this might seem like a good bet on the surface, when you open your sportsbook to bet it you are offered “Bayern -2 1.91” since everyone and their mother piled on the huge home favorite and the person you are paying for picks gave you this pick one hour before kickoff.
“Mc Gregor ITD 2.9” In this example the capper offered you odds that simply never existed. The current odds for Mc Gregor ITD are 1.91, where and how they got 2.9 nobody knows. If you ask where they got those odds you will be told to slam max bet whatever odds you can get to beat the bookie. This is a quick way to destroy your bankroll, but if it wins the capper looks great.
The Capper scammed you by providing a pick with odds that are impossible for you to bet, their record will look good in the long term because they are betting at better odds than the market provides when the pick is made public or given to the subscribers. If you are paying a service provider that does not give you a heads up on WHEN to bet and you have trouble finding odds that they quote, there is a good chance you are dealing with a scammer.
This is what is described in the first article “How Sports Betting Scams work part 1” but with American sports or any two-way markets, it is even less complex because there is no draw. You simply give one group of people Team A and the second group of people Team B.
When team A wins call all of them back and sell them on a subscription for your betting services. Then call all the losers that bet on your pick Team B and offer them more free picks.
Repeat until you have scammed enough people that you have a nice list of subscribers. Combine that with the first method of quoting your record as having better odds that were available than when the picks were given out then you can really scam people. Mix in some “Smash the Bookies together” and you can scam entire herds of sheep that want to make money with no effort.
“I have inside information”
Great that you have some inside information. You should be rich! Why are you sharing this information and instead not betting it yourself? If you have really valuable information there is no reason to share it. In fact, it would kill the value of the information that you have. Why collect 20$ from people that subscribe to your picks and instead bet your own picks using your inside information with the piles of money that you have in your Instagram pictures?
“I only give picks in low liquidity markets”
While low liquidity markets do often have value that can be found, it makes no sense to crowd these markets with your subscribers. Why would you invite more people to bet in a low liquidity market that you are betting? This means either you don’t know what you are doing, you have a losing record and need to sell picks, or a combination of the tactics listed above.
“We are 10-1 in the last week”
While that is a great record it does not show the long-term stats. Often cappers avoid the long-term stats because, well, they are losing. They are more than happy to post “5-1 last night Smashing the Bookie” but not that they are 90-115 on the year. Let us not forget about the odds. They are
5-1 last night, but at what odds? 5-1 at 1.10 each pick? 5-1 at already hammered lines? 5-1 at odds that none of their subscribers can bet? Maybe all of the above.
Public handicapping is full of scammers. You are better off saving your money and using it to bet with, learning how to find an edge, or even spinning a wheel than paying for picks. Don´t fall for hard sales tactics, pictures of piles of cash, and Instagram pictures of the tout in front of a car. If they are so rich and making so much money why are they trying to sell you picks?
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