Why im all in on Dominic Thiem to win -600

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Updated: February 19, 2018

Dominic Thiem vs. Dusan Lajovic by Yolocurry

Dominic Thiem is on a tear right now and nobody except for the True Top 10 in ATP Tennis is capable of taking him down. Thiem’s recent tournament matches included one with Gael Monfils, where Thiem easily covered the spread and took him down. Thiem is a young, emerging ATP Superstar and we should see nothing less in this match.

Thiem has always been a stronger player than Lajovic: In their Head-to-Head matchups, Thiem consistently wins games and makes solid, formidable breaks against Lajovic. This is a game that Lajovic himself may be dreading.

An interesting caveat is that Thiem is quite weak against Top 10 opponents, going 10-25 (This also includes matches early on his career). This is a good statistic for our purposes because one could say that Thiem is going to make this a statement year as far as cementing his foothold as a Top 10 player that is worthy enough to hold against the likes of Grigor Dimitrov, David Goffin, and Alexander Zverev. There are other competitors in the Rio Open that Thiem may be keeping an eye on; Juan Del Potro, Marin Cilic, Pablo Carreno Busta, and Ramos-Vinolas. This is precisely why I am staying away from the spread selection and opting for a different wager because Thiem may enter a conservative playing style in order to save his energy for deeper matches. Dominic Thiem is preparing to break into the prime of his tennis career. We have the unique position of being able to watch his athletic oeuvre unfold.

On the contrary, Dusan Lajovic progressed to the Round of 128 in the Australian Open Grand Slam Tournament and ended up taking Diego Schwartzman (24th Seed) to a 5 set thriller. Unfortunately, he lost this match. Lajovic also won his Round of 32 against Bagnis quite easily, but lost to Gael Monfils in a match where he put up a nice effort.

Finally, the most recent and direct measure of these players can be seen in their matches against Gael Monfils. Both Lajovic and Thiem played Monfils recently, with Thiem routing Monfils easily while conversely Lajovic lost to Monfils.

I fall into the atypical bettor’s strategy, so I am picking Dominic Thiem to win -600 with a heavy unit application to ensure stronger returns. Thiem simply has more raw-talent than his competitor. Even if the match begins in an unfavorable manner, his gritty mentality and youth/conditioning level will allow him to pull through.

This is a very risky gut-chosen strategy to employ, but if done right, can be extremely profitable.

An additional support is that these players do not care about spread covers: They only care about winning the match.

Key Stats:

Thiem’s Clay Court Dominance
Thiem is 3-0 on Clay against Lajovic
Thiem coming off an official ATP Tournament Finals Victory

Still don’t believe in Thiem?

Who’s got the better mug shot?

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