Its time for UFC 201. Worth taking a look at is playing the main event as a hedge with props. There are also some other good props that you can play on the side that you think will win and some round props. The “points handicap” prop works like this. If it is a three round fight then the total of all judges is added. For example all judges gave fighter A 10 in all three rounds then they have 90 minus the handicap of 3.5 is now 86.5. All judges gave fighter B 9 points in all three rounds. Now fighter B has 81 points. In this case the prop bet of -3.5 points wins. This can be a good tool to get extra juice on favorites or to hedge with some other props. If you think a split decision or a draw is possible you could go on the +3.5 point side. For 5 round fights the handicap is 5.5 points.
Woodley vs. Lawler
Woodley wins in round 1 6.000 1u
Woodley wins in round 2 8.000 1u
Lawler points handicap -5.5 2.150 5u
This is going to be a great fight. In the first rounds is when Woodley has his best chance to use his KO power or to get Lawler down and get a stoppage via ground and pound. If Woodley is going to win I see it going down in the first two rounds. With the Lawler handicap I am covered for a Lawler win anytime in the distance and unless it is a split or close decision which then you get enough juice to cover the Woodley bets. Woodley wins round 1 flat Woodley win in round 2 small win.
Kowalkiewicz vs. Namajunas
Depending on who you think is going to win you can amplify your bet. I am picking Kowalkiewicz stright up and I will add the wins by 3 round decision as well. I think that she will out point Namajunas in at least 2 out of 3 rounds. If you like Namajunas then I would go with via sub and -3.5 . I dont see either of them finishing via KO/TKO this time and if Rose wins in the distance her subs are the biggest threat, which she even goes for out of the standing position.
Pearson vs Masvidal
Fight won’t go 3 round distance 2.700
Pearson just fought a few weeks ago. Now jumping in again could be a recipe for getting KOed. Of course the doctors have cleared him but still fights this close together should raise question marks about his ablity to beat Masvidal. Masvidal can finish via KOTKO or Submission and I dont understand why the doest not go the distance is at 2.70. I like this bet and I am not willing to bet on a winner for this fight with Pearson jumping in and being modivated but possibly not 100%.