UFC FIGHT NIGHT – Brazil – Brunson vs. Machida

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Updated: October 23, 2017

The UFC is continuing the at least one event every weekend schedule this weekend in Brazil. As with all Brazil cards, there are plenty of locals including Machida, Trinaldo, Maia, and Lineker. Some of the fights at the last fight night Poland card were a letdown, let´s see if this card can make up for it. The main event has an interesting matchup.

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Brunson vs. Machida

Cooking Oil in the butthurt?

Brunson is coming off a first round KO vs Kelly in Australia. A lot of people might forget that, and maybe he has too. He is still thinking about his three round decision loss to Anderson Silva two fights ago.

already making excuses

It was a close decision and a lot of people had it for Brunson, but what is clear is that he did not have a convincing performance. Silva was never in huge danger and did not take a lot of damage. This fight is still in Brunson´s mind, on the one hand, this could be a good thing and he will go in there to set things straight with one of his first round blitzkrieg KOs..

That is what Brunson has shown us that he is good at, but he has also shown weakness to being countered by Whittaker and by Silva. Brunson still makes too many mistakes in his striking that he can normally compensate for with power. This plays into Machida´s style.


This is not the style that beats Machida

Is the Dragon back?


Machida has not fought since 2015 and has been on a 18th-month suspension for banned substances. He looked really good at middleweight before being banned even though he lost his last two vs. Romero and Rockhold.

“Machida said he was using the substance, 7-keto-dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), to reduce stress, not for performance enhancement.”


He is one of the best counter strikers in MMA history and even though he is getting old he is still fast and has very tight striking. He has shown good takedown defense but for the most part, it is hard to get a hold of him.

 

An older fight but Rampage has a similar style to Brunson. Machida moved all over the cage the whole fight.

Machida is also good at getting you used to one speed and then exploding on you in a flury or catching you with hard body or headkicks. One reason guys have a time cutting off the cage is that they cant time him. He is also no slouch in the takedown defense department as seen below.


 

I think all of this will cause Brunson trouble. There is an argument for Brunson though, Machida with ring rust coming off a long break, Brunson goes directly for strong takedowns and ends it with ground and pound. That is not what I am betting on though. I like the style matchup that Machida gets here and even though he has had time off, maybe that is good for an older fighter. He has had plenty of time to heal anything that wasn´t right.

Pick

Machida +134 / 2.34

Maia vs. Covington


Before losing to Woodly Maia was on a rampage running through the division. Covington is on a four fight win streak. Will Covington´s wreslting be enough to stop Maia´s submission game? I wouldn´t sleep on Maia´s improved striking. Often his striking is overlooked and sure he is not on the level as some of the elite strikers in the division, still against Covington I think he has the advantage standing. This could be one of those cases where both fighters with ground games cancel each other out and we see two guys in a stand up battle that normaly do not want to be there. Im going to give a big shout out to BJJ scout, who did a great breakdown of Maia vs. Covington on the ground.

TLDR: Covington vs other people with a wrestling background- Covington will cause you a lot of trouble. Covington vs a strong BJJ guard – trouble for Covington. Not only is Maia good off his back getting submissions, he is also good at getting the sweep and ending up on top. Also you do not want the human backback Maia riding you for 3 or 4 min untill you just give up and he subs you. Maia at plus money, in Brazil , ill take that.

Pick

Maia +120 / 2.2


Lineker vs. Vera

It is hard to put Lineker away and he will want to avoid Vera´s submission game. Vera is a tricky fighter that will need to avoid Lineker´s power. Honestly I don´t know who is going to take this one. I could see this one going the distance and both having a chance to win. Im just going to take over 1.5 I think both will be cautious.

Pick

Over 1.5 -152 / 1.66



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UFC FIGHT NIGHT Sao Paulo, Brazil -Brunson vs. Machida from sportsbook