Will Trump make it to 2018 ?

Updated: August 18, 2017

After the events in Charlotesville some people were not satisfied with Trump’s comments. Some expected a swift reaction and nearly everyone on all sides can agree that he did not handle it in the best tactical way. That is nothing new for Trump and as the media pounds the impeachment drum just as hard or harder than they did during all the Russia news that has turned out to be for the most part a nothingburger the odds on Trump being in office in 2018 even with only a few months left in the year are slowly becoming something to think about betting on.

Media Waves
It doesnt matter if you like Trump or not, the fact of the matter is that the media hype train comes in waves. We had earlier this year two big media hypes against Trump, the FBI wave and the Russia Wave. Both of them had many people truly beliving that it is only a matter of weeks before Trump is out of office. Looking back on both of those hype cycles we can see just how out of wack with reality that was.

Trump is the media’s crack rock
Let us not forget how Trump won the election. With the vast majoirty of all media outlets against him (afterwards several openly admiting this). The hype around Trump gets views. There is no reason not to continue to push these topics at unreasonable levels if that is what gets your media outlet attention. I would even go so far to say that by now that media outlets are addicted to pumping out Trump hype. It does not matter if it has been fact checked or not, it matters that it gets views, clicks and attention. From a betting perspective the public is in the hands of the media. What does that mean for us bettors?

Four sides of the coin

The Betting Side
From a betting perspective we are always looking for value. The odds on some of these bets are low but have been hyped up into the range where they are worth looking at. If it was not for the overexubernce of the media there wouldnt even be a line. The media has basicly created the line. We are going to look at four bets.

Trump is in office on 1/10/2017 Yes 1.033 No 14.00
Trump is in office on 1/1/2018 Yes 1.111 No 6.00
Trump Jr. Testifies before congress in 2017 Yes 2.60 No 1.476
Ivanka Trump Testifes before congress in 2017 Yes 9.500 No 1.057

At first look you might think that some of these look they have some nice odds. Given the current landscape of the media I think the odds against Trump, Trump Jr and Ivanka are totaly overblown. Sure Trump Jr. looks like he might have to testify at some point but will that be in 2017? The wheels of big goverment grind slowly. Why should Ivanka testify before congress? Do you really think that Trump wont be in office in October, that an inpeachment or the threat of one is really that big? If you were going to take any of these on the against Trump side it would have to be not in office on Jan 1st 2018 but I also think that is really pumped up. Even if there is an impeachment, it is an impeachment – process – and that process is not lighting quick.

The Trading Side
This is the easy side. Buy low sell high, or sell high buy low. Right now the odds on anything pro trump are screaming buy and anything against Trump is screaming sell. The hype will regress to the mean at some point and the next media wave will come. Ride the waves, you could just bet on all four pro Trump bets No Trump Jr doesnt go before congress, No Ivanka doesnt go before congress, Yes Trump is in office on Oct 1st and Yes Trump is in office on Jan 1st 2018. Then just wait for things to blow over again, Trump has a small victory and the odds move. Then you hedge out and you have a small gain. Maybe there will be a crazy day where you can get a nice line.

The Anti Trump Side
If you really hate Trump this is your chance to buy Trump insurance. Just bet that he is in office and that none of his kids go before congress. If they do then you can be ideologicaly happy, if they dont then you get paid. You have hedged your ideology.

The Pro Trump Side
If you like Trump then just take the bets that he will not be in office and that his kids will have to go before Congress. If they dont then you can be happy, Trump is still in office. If he leaves for some reason, then you get a nice payday. You have Trump insurance and have hedged your poltics.

Are you going to bet on Trump leaving or staying in office? Let us know in the comments below

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